Thursday, October 1, 2015

We survived September but......

September was supposed to be the month of doom and gloom, but we survived and are now starting the month of October.  Is it time to relax and put to shame all those naysayers who said the world as we know it was going to change big time last month?  The problem with predicting specific dates and events is that life is not predictable.  Even things like sunrise tomorrow, which can normally be predicted with regularity is subject to error - how?  What if its raining and you can't see the sun - or what if you had to travel some distance last night and are now located in a different spot on the planet?  As you see, there is no certainty or precision in many things we take for granted.

Thus to predict the social and economic demise of ourselves and tie very specific dates is fraught with error and change from many external factors.  The inevitable will happen, but the exact time and circumstances are not always so clear.  What has been clear is that trillions of dollars of wealth evaporated in September due to market corrections throughout the planet.  US housing fell in value and resale volume.  Commodity prices continue to fall - watch Glencore very very closely.  Shipping and transports are down.  People were laid off at big corporations like HP.  And another escalation has started in the middle east with Russia joining the fray.  Many feel that we are really close to the edge and it can happen any day.

The other view, which I hold, is that we are already in the crash, albeit moving slowly.  Remember when the Titanic hit the iceberg and the crew and passengers all knew it was going to sink?  The ship did not go down immediately because of its size (It took 2 hours and 40 minutes).  It sank slowly first and then quickly near the end when it broke in half, but eventually it sank to the bottom where it remains today.  In the meantime, the band was playing on deck and the poor second/third class passengers were locked up below.  Like the Titanic, the economies of the world are huge and it will take some time for them to be swallowed by the crisis.  It will happen but in an almost slow motion type of way, but it is accelerating and will eventually sink. 

Save the rich and influential first, the others can go down with the ship.  That is how I see the situation today...we are sinking, but the as for the exact moment - only time will tell.  There is still time to get off, but those denying that the ship is sinking will likely go down with the ship, but that is their choice and nothing anyone can say will make them change.

For the others, put on your life jacket and get out your rubber raft.  You might need it soon.  You see, the exact time and date "comes like a thief in the night"....

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