Friday, August 5, 2016

No matter how it comes out....

A good boy scout tries to 'be prepared'.  One of the keys to being prepared is to try to anticipate circumstances and what one can do to either prevent them or reduce the consequences of such circumstances.  For example, one can make plans to avoid getting cut by a knife and/or the aftermath of being cut by a knife.  A good boy scout prepares for both scenarios - and even more if they are really good.

So as we bear down into the November election, one has to ask the question of what happens when Trump or Hillary wins?  At this point, my bias is already known, but the outcome of the nation and our world that we know it is going to change drastically no matter who wins.

I also believe that a major meltdown in our financial institutions and economy is going to happen between now and the election.  Even if the current administration manages to prop it up until after the election, the outcome is going to be devastating for the new president.  In the case of Hillary, if it happens before the election, she loses.  If it happens afterwards, she gets to hold the smoking grenade.  For Trump, if the melt down happens before, he wins.  He will spend the next four years digging us out of a historical financial crisis and won't have time for a wall, let alone making payroll and payments to entitlement recipients. 

In a nutshell, we're screwed.  We've been screwed since 2008 and have been living on borrowed time and borrowed money.  That is one reason why the national debt doubled and the feds are scared of raising interest rates.  Because the US debt has gotten so high, a small raise in fed interest rates will have significant impact on the interest we have to pay to just service our debt.  Our federal reserve, our economists, and government has been painting this rosy 'recovery' picture but if you pull back the covers, its nothing but a scam - making new money and adding it to the national debt and using that to make the economy look like its doing better.  

There was a time when our money was backed by gold.  Then the government realized that it could create money out of thin air backed by our credit and bonds sold to governments and institutions like China and pension funds.  When that slowed down, the financial powers realized that they could create even more money without any kind of backing at all -- just 'expand the balance sheet' or raise the credit limit.  We know at some point all Ponzi schemes fail.  We are at that point.  Europe is near collapse with Italian banks falling like flies on a hot summer day.  Even Deutsche Bank, Germany's largest bank is in deep do do.  And lastly, all signs are pointing to another market crash very soon as the profits and earnings don't match the illusionary  prices we are seeing in the market.

So what are boy scouts to do?  First of all, get as much diversity as possible from dollar denominated assets.  Get some precious metals, some foreign exchange from 'safe countries', get out of debt, buy items that can be bartered, buy land you can live off and own debt free and finally, develop a skill or need that you can provide to other people so that you can use it to barter for food and other necessities.  

Historians and Archaeologists can attest that civilizations do not go on forever.  They have all crashed and burned in time, taking the most cruel punishment on to its citizens.  When we dig up bones and monuments of civilizations long ago, we marvel at their accomplishments and achievements.  They at one point thought like we do today...the future is filled with endless opportunities and why worry? They were wrong.  Someday, when they dig up our bones and remnants of our great buildings and inventions, they will marvel too at what we have accomplished.  But they will also shake their heads at the same time thinking how stupid we were to not think of how we would all end up as a pile of bones and dust too.

Boy Scouts, prepare for the worse and hope for the best.  Our leaders can't do a darn thing to help us at this point.

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